When will Kick-’em-Jenny form a new island?

Kick-‘em-Jenny is a relatively young volcano, and it seems likely that it will continue to erupt in the future, eventually forming a shoal and then a new island. We do not know how long it will take for the volcano to grow to the surface. The best-studied example of underwater dome growth in the West Indies occurred at the Soufriere volcano in St. Vincent in 1971. On that occasion a dome began to grow at the bottom of the 175 metre-deep crater lake in early October 1971 and reached the surface in late September 1972. By analogy with this episode we would expect a period of almost a year of steady effusive eruption before Kick-’em -Jenny breaks the surface. This represent the fastest growth scenario. It is also possible that the volcano could grow step-wise towards the surface, with long periods of non-growth interspersed with short periods of growth. This would take much longer, e.g. tens to hundreds or even thousands of years.